In order to seize the important consumption peak season of the end of the year and the beginning of the year and promote the sustained recovery of the consumer market, recently, various consumer vouchers have appeared again in many places. The reporter found that catering vouchers seem to win the hearts of the people.
In an interview with the Securities Daily, Ying Xiwen, a senior researcher at the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank, said that in the short term, the pulling effect of consumer bonds on consumption is direct and rapid, which can be said to be a real gold and silver stimulus. But overall, boosting consumption also needs to start with long-term measures to improve residents' disposable income.
A new round of issuance of consumer vouchers
Some regions have driven consumption to exceed 100 million yuan
At 8 a.m. on December 22, Hengshui municipal government consumption coupons with a total amount of 3 million yuan were officially issued. The reporter found that in addition to Hengshui, since December alone, consumption vouchers have been issued successively in Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Chengdu, Chongqing and other places, covering catering, entertainment, shopping, tourism and other occasions.
For example, Hefei launched the activity of "Wanmei consumption · Hefei purchase" in the whole city on December 17, with a first round investment of 40 million yuan, including 15 million yuan for catering industry, 15 million yuan for shopping malls and supermarkets and 10 million yuan for automobile industry; From December 17 to December 26, Zhengzhou will jointly hold the "taste the Central Plains" food festival with key food districts, shopping centers and brand catering enterprises in the city, launch special food markets, special dishes, warm winter snacks blind boxes and other activities, and issue 5 million yuan catering consumption vouchers with the cooperation of UnionPay cloud flash payment.
Ying Xiwen said that the issuance of consumption vouchers by the government is conducive to promoting short-term consumption and restoring consumer confidence on the one hand; On the other hand, it is also an indirect subsidy to businesses to increase their short-term income and alleviate business pressure. In addition, if the use channels of consumption vouchers are limited, such as cloud flash payment or digital currency, it will also promote the promotion of specific channels to a certain extent.
The reporter noted that, driven by consumption vouchers, some regions have handed over brilliant consumption transcripts. Take Yining City as an example. From December 3 to December 14, Yining Municipal People's government issued 196000 consumption vouchers, 158100 vouchers were written off, and the write off amount was 8.3845 million yuan. It is understood that more than 100000 people participated in online voucher grabbing every day, and more than 400 businesses successfully signed up to participate in the activities, directly and indirectly driving consumption to exceed 100 million yuan.
"According to the experience of the first half of 2020, consumer vouchers have indeed played a key role in the recovery of the consumer market." Fu Yifu, senior researcher of Xingtu Financial Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that from the perspective of mechanism, consumer bonds can stimulate the recovery of consumption in relevant fields in the short term, thus driving the improvement of enterprise production and operation and alleviating the pressure of economic operation.
Boost consumption
Long term measures are also needed
According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, in November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 41043 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month; The average growth in the two years was 4.4%, down 0.2 percentage points. From the perspective of the whole year, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods has dropped from the double-digit growth at the beginning of the year to single digits.
In Fu Yifu's view, the consumption data in November was sluggish, mainly because the epidemic had a certain degree of disturbance to the consumer market and affected the operation of the offline consumer market.
Liu Xiangdong, Vice Minister of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for international economic exchanges, also told the Securities Daily that due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption in November was less than expected. On the whole, at present, the production of service industry has not returned to the pre epidemic level, and some contact service industries are obviously affected by the epidemic. Therefore, the issuance of consumption vouchers is conducive to promoting the recovery of consumption as soon as possible and boosting consumption at the end of the year. It is expected that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in December is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth of more than 4%.
Although the short-term stimulus effect brought by consumer vouchers is immediate, in the view of many industry experts, boosting consumption can not only rely on short-term measures, but also from a long-term perspective.
Fu Yifu said that consumer vouchers only enhance consumers' ability to pay at one time and can not inject long-term power into the consumer market. In the long run, if we want to really promote the development and growth of the consumer market, we should also make efforts from the aspects of stabilizing employment, increasing residents' income, optimizing the supply quality of goods and services, improving market order and protecting consumers' rights and interests.
Unblocked consumption blocking point
Experts suggest "grasping the big head"
As the "ballast stone" for the stable operation of China's economy, the importance of consumption is self-evident.
In Liu Xiangdong's view, the key to promoting the further recovery of the consumer market next year is to unblock the blocking points and breakpoints restricting consumption. At the same time, we should actively expand employment, increase residents' income and improve residents' consumption level. In the medium and long term, we need to promote consumption in more ways. In addition to issuing consumption vouchers, we should also deepen the price reform of consumer goods, increase the convenience of circulation links, and reduce taxes and costs in circulation transactions.
Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that from the historical experience and practical effect, consumption is a "slow variable" and has strong procyclicality. Therefore, stabilizing employment and then income is the fundamental way to promote consumption growth. In addition, we should establish a sound social security system to reduce the preventive needs of residents, so as to release more income for consumption. Finally, we should make every effort to promote "common prosperity", improve the income level of low-income people and promote the consumption intensity of compulsory consumption.
For promoting consumption, Zheng Houcheng put forward suggestions from the three aspects of "grasping the big head, strong and weak items and preventing risks": "grasping the big head", automobile, oil and products and post cyclical consumption of real estate rank among the top three consumption above the quota, which can focus on promoting consumption in relevant fields; In terms of "strengths and weaknesses", the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers and magazines and Chinese and Western drugs is low, and there is relatively large room for further improvement; Novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine should be developed more vigorously in the aspect of risk prevention, especially for scenario and accumulation consumption.
Fu Yifu holds a similar view. He said that if we want to further promote consumption, we need to speed up the removal of a series of obstacles to curb consumption and release residents' consumption potential. For example, continue to promote the reform of income distribution, strive to narrow the income gap and effectively improve the income level of low - and middle-income groups; Further improve the social security system, especially properly handle the elderly care and medical problems of residents, so as to solve the worries of people's consumption; In addition, we should improve the infrastructure construction in remote and backward areas, optimize the supply quality of goods and services, standardize the consumer market order and optimize the consumer environment, so as to stimulate the consumption potential of Chinese people.
